With his love for hockey and the purpose of motivating his students, the Management Science (MS) professor Armann Ingolfsson at the University of Alberta School of Business developed a computer model to calculate the probability of which teams should make the NHL playoffs this year, and which should fail to do so.
His results indicate that Toronto Maple Leafs only have a chance of 3% of making the playoffs, while his favorite team, the Edmonton Oilers, have only 1% odds.
Dr. Ingolfsson’s simulation program works by running possible outcomes for each team in each game for 500 times with the inputs of the wins and losses of all the conference teams and the schedule of remaining games. In each run, the program simulates the results of all remaining games using the current winning percentages of each team. However, like all mathematical models, the program ignores certain factors. In this case, Fletcher’s hiring, injuries or player hot streaks are not taken into account.
“When we ran the program this morning, the Oilers make it, in only six of the 500 possible outcomes for the rest of the season. That’s about a one per cent probability that they have of getting into the playoffs,” he said.
Dr. Ingolfsson’s program is embedded in his Management Science classes. His students showed a high level of interest in learning about the application of MS in hockey and the program helps them learn to analyze business problems involving uncertainty.
“Even though they are business students some of them are more interested in hockey than they are in business problems,” Ingolfsson said.
On the upside, several Canadian teams have rather high chances of making the playoffs. For example, the Senators and the Canadiens have 100% and 93% of odds, respectively.
Looking ahead to Tuesday’s Leafs game against St. Louis, Ingolfsson said the Blues have a 54% chance to win in regulation time while there is a 21% chance it will go to overtime. Even in overtime, the computer doesn’t like the Leafs: The Blues get a 57% chance of winning.
Each morning, new statistical data is fed to the program and the odds for each team is updated. Here is a list of teams and their odds to make Stanley Cup playoffs generated on Jan 25, 2008:
References
“Hockey Playoff Possibilities - Business professor, student use computer to crystal ball“, University of Alberta School of Business Media Releases, Jan 2008
“Leafs? Playoffs? 3% - How computer rates our hopes for post-season” by Don Peat, Sun Media, Jan 2008
“Alberta Sunflashes” by CP, Edmonton Sun, Jan 2008
“Waddell jumps at NHL All-Star chance” by George Richards, Miami Herald, Jan 2008
“Odds not on Oilers’ side” by Joanne Ireland, Canwest News Service, Jan 2008
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